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Date: Wed, 19 Dec 2001 07:04:48 -0800 (PST)
From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com
To: vkamins@ect.enron.com
Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Wed, Dec 19, 2001
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 Syncrasy - Weather for Business
[IMAGE]=09


[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, =
LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  H=
ouston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com       Sales:  713.228.4407   Deve=
lopment Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  Sui=
te 221  Durango, CO 81301      =09  =09 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version of=
 Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you would l=
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this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_tradersummary=
@syncrasy.com     Data last updated: Wednesday, Dec 19, 2001 at 07:39AM ET =
   Commentary last updated: Wednesday, Dec 19, 2001 at 09:45AM ET  Meteorol=
ogist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    Congratulations Andy W=
eingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA/AMS Sea=
sonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: AMSor Aqu=
ila  Click here for a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'    =
Today: Wednesday, December 19, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volat=
ility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image =
to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 45 +1 ERCOT(SP) 60 +1 FRCC(SE) 75 NC MAAC=
(NE) 50 +1 MAIN(CTR) 38 +2 MAPP(HP) 33 +1 NPCC(NE) 43 +1 SERC(SE) 59 +1 SPP=
(SP) 49 +1 WSCC(NW) 41 +1 WSCC(RK) 40 NC WSCC(SW) 57 -1     Range Standard =
Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 32 40 37 32=
 59 51 53 Max 41 40 45 41 41 63 59 58 Min 33 28 37 34 26 55 45 49 Range 8 1=
2 8 7 15 8 14 9 StD-P 2.2 3.9 2.6 1.5 4.2 2.3 3.9 2.5 Count 12 12 12 12 12 =
12 12 12 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility =
Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:   The strong ridge/trough configuration of re=
cent weeks relaxes temporarily. It will reload again this weekend on the wa=
y to a transition to winter.   The weather system in the Midwest this morni=
ng is weak when compared to recent standards. There is however, a decent co=
ol air push behind it though most of the precipitation with this is still l=
iquid in nature. The gradual trend down in temperatures continues as the pa=
ttern slowly changes. We have seen near record warming out ahead of these s=
ystems early in December, now the warming is not quite so robust. There won=
't be many changes yet to 5 day temperature departures as they remain above=
 normal. Those changes may start to show up by Friday. The next system to h=
it the West coast tonight and Thursday looks more robust. Models continue t=
o show the evolution of thi! s storm as the window to the soul of the long =
awaited pattern change. It will be a sizeable wet weather maker this weeken=
d and into Christmas. There should be ample cold in the Northern U.S. for s=
now, but most still see rain. It is a little early as to the potential of t=
his storm with regard to the East Coast for Christmas. It is my feeling at =
this early stage that the I95 corridor is mainly a rain event with snow for=
 the Lakes and Interior NE.  Tomorrow: Thursday, December 20, 2001   Syncra=
sy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] =
[IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 37 NC ERCO=
T(SP) 63 +2 FRCC(SE) 68 -1 MAAC(NE) 45 +1 MAIN(CTR) 39 NC MAPP(HP) 35 NC NP=
CC(NE) 38 +1 SERC(SE) 54 NC SPP(SP) 55 +2 WSCC(NW) 39 +1 WSCC(RK) 42 +4 WSC=
C(SW) 54 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW =
RK SE SP SW Mean 33 35 39 37 36 53 54 50 Max 39 42 45 41 45 62 64 57 Min 28=
 30 35 33 31 46 46 44 Range 11 12 10 8 14 16 18 13 StD-P 3.5 3.4 2.2 2.1 4.=
1 4.6 4.8 4.0 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Hereto See Each Weather F=
orecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: Friday, December 21, 200=
1   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAG=
E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) =
40 +2 ERCOT(SP) 65 +1 FRCC(SE) 69 NC MAAC(NE) 42 NC MAIN(CTR) 43 +4 MAPP(HP=
) 37 +7 NPCC(NE) 33 NC SERC(SE) 56 +1 SPP(SP) 55 +1 WSCC(NW) 36 +1 WSCC(RK)=
 32 -3 WSCC(SW) 50 -2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT=
 HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 37 33 34 32 52 59 47 Max 40 39 40 39 45 58 62=
 54 Min 30 33 28 30 24 46 56 42 Range 10 6 12 9 21 12 6 12 StD-P 2.3 2.0 2.=
9 2.4 5.5 3.7 2.1 3.7 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Hereto See Each W=
eather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 4: Saturday, Decemb=
er 22, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IM=
AGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   =
ECAR(CTR) 47 +6 ERCOT(SP) 63 -2 FRCC(SE) 74 +1 MAAC(NE) 44 NC MAIN(CTR) 40 =
+8 MAPP(HP) 27 +2 NPCC(NE) 36 +2 SERC(SE) 58 NC SPP(SP) 45 +3 WSCC(NW) 39 +=
2 WSCC(RK) 26 -5 WSCC(SW) 52 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE=
]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 39 30 32 36 23 57 58 47 Max 41 37 39 3=
9 36 61 63 52 Min 38 26 27 34 15 54 55 43 Range 3 11 12 5 21 7 8 9 StD-P 1.=
0 3.3 2.9 1.1 5.9 1.6 1.7 2.8 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Hereto Se=
e Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 5: Sunday, =
December 23, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMA=
GE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMA=
GE]   ECAR(CTR) 43 +8 ERCOT(SP) 54 +1 FRCC(SE) 75 +1 MAAC(NE) 47 +5 MAIN(CT=
R) 32 +2 MAPP(HP) 20 -5 NPCC(NE) 40 +7 SERC(SE) 56 +1 SPP(SP) 39 NC WSCC(NW=
) 41 NC WSCC(RK) 29 -5 WSCC(SW) 54 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] =
[IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 23 38 39 22 58 48 49 Max 37 2=
9 42 41 29 61 60 54 Min 31 18 35 36 15 55 37 44 Range 6 11 7 5 14 6 23 10 S=
tD-P 1.7 2.9 1.7 1.4 4.3 1.8 6.3 3.0 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click He=
reto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-1=
0 Discussion:  Model consensus remains fairly strong with the evolution of =
the 6-10 day period. We should at long last start seeing negative departure=
s East of the Rockies though I wouldn't call the numbers significant. It is=
 significant only when comparing to the last two months. Late in the period=
, all of the models forecast a sizeable Western U.S. ridge and Eastern trou=
gh. This brings the flow out of Canada and into the Plains. Now, attention =
turns to source region of the air mass. It is clearly Canadian, but equally=
 clear to me it is not pure arctic. Thats why I dont think we are yet headi=
ng way below normal. The coldest polar air is on the other side of the hemi=
sphere. It can come around if this pattern were to lock in for a while, but=
 that is after the first of the year. There is potential for serious cold e=
arly to mid January, but rig! ht now its all potential. Until then, the gra=
dual step-down seems in order.    Day 6: Monday, December 24, 2001  Click H=
erefor Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp=
. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on=
 image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 36 +3 ERCOT(SP) 51 -4 FRCC(SE) 70 =
-1 MAAC(NE) 48 +11 MAIN(CTR) 29 -1 MAPP(HP) 23 -5 NPCC(NE) 40 +10 SERC(SE) =
50 -1 SPP(SP) 38 -7 WSCC(NW) 43 +3 WSCC(RK) 34 -1 WSCC(SW) 56 -1     Range =
Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 25=
 40 41 24 52 43 50 Max 30 31 42 43 34 59 53 55 Min 24 19 37 38 17 46 33 45 =
Range 6 12 5 5 17 13 20 10 StD-P 1.5 2.5 1.4 1.6 5.4 4.6 5.9 3.2 Count 9 9 =
9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatili=
ty Matrix   Day 7: Tuesday, December 25, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta T=
emp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click=
 on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 NC ERCOT(SP) 54 -6 FRCC(SE) =
65 -1 MAAC(NE) 41 +2 MAIN(CTR) 32 -3 MAPP(HP) 27 -5 NPCC(NE) 39 +8 SERC(SE)=
 47 -3 SPP(SP) 43 -5 WSCC(NW) 43 +1 WSCC(RK) 37 +1 WSCC(SW) 56 -1     Range=
 Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 26 2=
7 36 40 28 45 41 51 Max 30 35 42 43 37 53 51 57 Min 20 20 32 36 22 40 34 46=
 Range 10 15 10 7 15 13 17 11 StD-P 1.4 2.5 3.0 2.3 4.2 4.5 6.1 3.6 Count 9=
 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volat=
ility Matrix   Day 8: Wednesday, December 26, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  De=
lta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (=
Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 28 +2 ERCOT(SP) 37 -9 FRCC=
(SE) 55 NC MAAC(NE) 32 +4 MAIN(CTR) 23 -2 MAPP(HP) 24 +3 NPCC(NE) 36 +18 SE=
RC(SE) 36 -4 SPP(SP) 32 +2 WSCC(NW) 37 -1 WSCC(RK) 25 +3 WSCC(SW) 50 NC    =
 Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mea=
n 26 31 33 39 29 44 44 52 Max 31 36 38 42 37 51 54 57 Min 21 26 29 36 23 38=
 36 48 Range 10 10 9 6 14 13 18 9 StD-P 2.2 3.3 3.4 2.7 5.2 4.2 5.9 3.3 Cou=
nt 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the V=
olatility Matrix   Day 9: Thursday, December 27, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice: =
 Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE=
] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 24 +3 ERCOT(SP) 44 +2 F=
RCC(SE) 53 -4 MAAC(NE) 31 +3 MAIN(CTR) 22 +6 MAPP(HP) 21 +12 NPCC(NE) 33 +1=
2 SERC(SE) 37 +1 SPP(SP) 35 +11 WSCC(NW) 35 -1 WSCC(RK) 20 -2 WSCC(SW) 49 -=
1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP S=
W Mean 26 29 31 38 26 44 46 51 Max 31 37 36 43 37 50 54 57 Min 21 26 25 34 =
18 39 42 48 Range 10 11 11 9 19 11 12 9 StD-P 3.3 3.4 2.3 3.5 5.8 3.9 4.3 3=
.3 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within=
 the Volatility Matrix   Day 10: Friday, December 28, 2001   Syncrasy's Cho=
ice:  Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][=
IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 18 +3 ERCOT(SP) 43=
 +9 FRCC(SE) 57 NC MAAC(NE) 24 +4 MAIN(CTR) 17 +5 MAPP(HP) 18 +15 NPCC(NE) =
25 +9 SERC(SE) 37 +8 SPP(SP) 31 +12 WSCC(NW) 35 -3 WSCC(RK) 21 -8 WSCC(SW) =
47 -7     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE =
SP SW Mean 19 23 25 32 17 40 38 41 Max 22 27 29 35 20 41 40 49 Min 16 20 23=
 23 13 36 35 34 Range 6 7 6 12 7 5 5 15 StD-P 2.2 2.4 2.3 4.4 2.2 1.2 2.3 6=
.0 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Hereto See Each Weather Forecast Used Within=
 the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted f=
or the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary=
 can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.comor    www.apbenergy.comor www.true=
quote.com   [IMAGE]  =09
=09=09=09

